The strategy to eliminate the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of Covid-19 infection should have two distinct demographic and economic components, and the lockdown has resulted in a production loss of over Rs 8 lakh crore, one by the State Bank of Block Research. The report states that India (SBI). The nationwide lockout is in force until 14 April, with a strong opinion in favor of pushing it forward
On the demographic strategy, the population is asked to be classified into four groups – positive cases, hospitalization, immunity, and healthy individuals. There should be a well-defined strategy for each group as there is no herd immunity in the population for Covid-19. However, for geographical areas that have been identified as hotspots/quarantine/control zones, the above classification needs to be adapted locally as needed. To date, the total number of districts in India is 720, out of which 284 COVID-19s (with at least one patient) have been affected.
As part of the economic strategy, the report listed various measures to restore demand. The first priority, it said, should be given to agriculture and procurement, as nearly half of the population depends on it. Some exemptions in inland transport – road transport and railways – can be considered as a requirement of the rural population. Trading activity, namely retail trade, may be allowed for an extended time as it supports more than 25 crore households.
Hotel services including home delivery is a major employment generator. The social disturbances in the area have particularly affected. These services may be allowed to open for a limited time for low-risk groups. The report supported limited construction activity in districts without cases or limited cases.
The lockdown has put the brakes on about 70 percent of economic activity. The report estimated a loss of 8.04 lakh crore in total production, the biggest loss in the transport sector after hotels, business, education, petroleum, and agriculture. These areas have maximum forward and backward contacts. The loss in labor income is due to the unorganized and proprietary forms of trade organizations and the nature of self-employment in the Indian economy, which is about 30 percent of the GDP.
Out of the first incentive (Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana) -1.75-lakh crore, only ive 73,000 crore in this report is new and the rest are from the current budget. Therefore, the government needs to announce a large fiscal package for the affected industries and sectors which are at high and medium risk. Its calculation shows that the credit-to-GDP ratio in these sectors is around 12 percent.
“SBI believes that to enable these sectors to grow at an equivalent pace as they might have grown in normal times, a fiscal package of a minimum of ₹ 3.5 lakh crore is required. Our estimate also suggests that approximately and Labor and capital income deficit of 3.60. – lakh crore rupees, the minimum subsistence fiscal package should be increased to more than ₹ 3 lakh crore, which was earlier more than 73,000 crore rupees.